Disaster Declaration Outcomes vs. State Presidential Vote
Every individual Major Disaster declaration plotted by days to decision and the requesting state's presidential vote margin.
Denials extend left, approvals extend right. Y-axis = state vote margin.
Tribal declarations and territories excluded.
Denied · Rep states
Approved · Rep states
Denied · Dem states
Approved · Dem states
Vote margin = Republican % − Democratic % (positive = R won state).
X-axis: denials shown as negative days (left), approvals as positive days (right).
Territories excluded (no presidential vote). Tribal declarations excluded.
Two outliers excluded: a Biden-era Ohio denial (547 days) and an Obama 1-era Arizona denial (423 days).
Data: OpenFEMA API + state election results. Major Disaster declarations only (COVID-19 excluded).